The defenders: Older White Folks. The challengers: Young Multiculturals. In the long run, demographers agree--the multiculturals will "win" (if for no other reason than for the simple fact that they'll outlive the older folk). But for the next few decades, it's going to get ugly--it already has, in fact (think Arizona or the controversy with the Texas Board of Education).
And now it's complicating the hell out of marketing too.
And this disparity is scheduled to get even bigger:
"All of these numbers are likely to grow as the minority share of the youth population rises to nearly 55 percent by 2030 and almost 60 percent by 2040, according to Frey's projections." [National Journal Magazine. The Gray and the Brown. The Generational Mismatch, July 24, 2010]
So, what does it matter? Well in politics, quite a bit: it's the biggest battle in a while. Older whiter=republican. Younger multicultural=democrat. Invest in Social Security or in Education? Etc, etc.. The above referenced excellent article from the National Journal digs in further.
But here's the part that might interest marketers: who do you build a brand for? The older white folk, or the young multiculturals? It's a major decision. Brands that sit on the fence are likely to miss both targets. There's just not a lot of common ground. I'm sure you can argue there is, but if you're honest...there isn't. How many white seniors you know couldn't wait to download the latest Fat Joe album? And how many Latino teens tuned in last night to TV Land's broadcast of Gunsmoke?
So don't kid yourself. There's a call to made. Old Spice just made an absolute shift to younger multiculturals. I'm betting it will eventually pay off.
So what about your brand? You seem to have 3 options: go conservative and whiter, young and more multicultural, or live in a bland middle road: same 'ol work you've been doing but a little non-white casting randomly sprinkled in (which if the laws of marketing are correct, will simply be a slow death)?
Some brands are no brainers. Depends Adult Diapers, for instance. Or Adidas. But what about financial products? Do you become younger, hipper, browner and risk alienating the crowd that has money today? Or do you stay White and conservative and become increasingly irrelevant to the crowd that's going to continue increasing dramatically?
My prediction: some brands will stay white and more conservative and stay afloat by winning with that crowd, but more and more brands will break out a'la Old Spice and reap the benefits of realigning themselves with the changing demographics.
In the end, the right solution will vary by brand, but marketers that heed the change and make wise decisions will avoid riding away into the sunset... with Doc, Kitty, Festus and Mat to keep them company.
6 comments:
Great article. I wonder how many brands have realized this? I'm guessing the ones that have will succeed long term, and the ones that haven't...will struggle or die out (mercifully).
I'd also like to add a thought: This whole thing is complicated by the simple fact that most CLIENTS belong to the older, whiter segment.
For many reasons, they probably aren't willing to make any sort of shift to talk to this younger, more latino generation.
Sad. But in the end, the brand will pay the price.
Has anyone read Samuel Huntington's "The Hispanic Challenge"? He's the head professor at Harvard and it's a whole article about how dangerous Hispanics are to the US.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2004/03/01/the_hispanic_challenge
I think that's part of the problem.
Many folks are seriously scared of this demographic shift. CEO's and CMO's included.
Agreed with the comment above me: the brands will suffer.
To self proclaim: "Older whiter=republican. Younger multicultural=democrat" is pretty narrow. You did not address the fact that a younger white person aligns extremely well with a young multicultural, which pretty much debunks your whole argument here. Thanks for the genius suggestion old and young people like different things. This is the age old concept of out with the old in with the new. Nothing more here than a old idea blanketed with some stats on race if you ask me.
Actually, my point exactly Anonymous 3: the younger white generation is aligning powerfully with the Multicultural mindset. Whereas the older generation has a pretty clear gap between white/non white attitudes. Meaning that these 2 generations are far more different than any this country has ever seen.
Also, this is far from the "old vs young" simplification that you refer to. Please read Samuel Huntington's article that Anonymous 2 refers to. It's full of panic, but it does explain quite clearly how the younger multicultural (specifically Hispanic) generation is a generation so intrinsically different than ANYTHING this country has ever seen before that it threatens to change the fabric of the US.
Or do you really think the biggest ethnic change in the History of the United States is going to have no impact?
By the way, I don't take credit for noting this change. Politicians, demographers and professors have been talking about the implications for the country for at least a decade. I just wanted to point out the marketing implications.
Yes, the Younger Multicultural segment doesn't have the money... if by money we mean dollar bills.
But if we add Virtual Money to the equation, things change, and bridges to the Future consumer suddenly open to marketers, Today.
Think about it: Multiculturals neighbors are all around the world in neighborhoods called Facebook, YouTube, MySpace or Chat Roulette. And those neighborhoods have banks that pay/reward them for 'having a life' online and doing things like playing games, reviewing movies, trying new products, clicking on links or filling applications.
My point is, just like the whole concept of friendship or neighborhood is changing; so it is the concept of money.
Marketers need to find ways to get in touch with Millennials in their own terms and accepting their own money. After all, if brands are defined by consumers, why not money?
Here is a very interesting speech/presentation from Carnegie Mellon professor and ex-Disney Imagineer, Jesse Schell at DICE 2010, on regards of Millennials and their web-based lives.
http://g4tv.com/thefeed/blog/post/702668/DICE-2010-Video-Design-Outside-The-Box.html
-m.
You're right, of course, Marcelo. But it is a tougher sell to say, a banker, to buy. He wants the folks with the greenbacks today. Your point is well taken though...and I believe much more relevant and critical to business long-term. And thanks for the link! Very cool.
Post a Comment